Now here is
where the math gets a little tricky but bear with me. BANG uses both
Google Analytics and DoubleClick for Publishers, also a Google tool. The
back ends are connected, but not entirely. This duo of tools keeps
track of ads that are automatically sent to BANG properties from
programmatic ad exchanges, and some, but not all, of the ads that BANG
sells directly. Combining these and boiling it all down to a pageview
comparison, BANG quite consistently made 1.4 cents in ad revenue per
pageview over the period. However, ad ops director Phil has to true-up
these numbers every month or so, and consistently finds that this
low-balls the actual ad revenue BANG brings in. By his estimate, one
would have to increase the number by as much as 40% to get the real
number. So to be conservative, I added 40% to every pageview value
estimate, for 1.96 cents per pageview. Then I looked at the 13 days we
measured and extrapolated that out to 30 days to determine how much in
ad revenue each group is worth every 30 days. For those who clicked
“subscribe,” the most engaged group, it’s $1.11; for people that clicked
through on the ad, it’s $0.76; for people that closed the ad, it’s
$0.75; for people that saw the ad and did nothing, it’s $0.42; and for
people who didn’t see the ad (and probably don’t read “News” stories),
it’s $0.14.
Could
publishers offer ad-free for $1 a month? Maybe, but that doesn’t
include the cost of all the engineering you’d have to put into it. And
heck, people might be willing to pay even more than that. But, we’re
talking about less than a single-copy price for most newspapers, and I’d
venture that most “newspaper” publishers will tell you they won’t be in
the business of printing ink on dead trees for much longer.
In the age of digital content, are people willing to pay for a cleaner news experience for such a modest price? I think so.
What
is each group’s propensity to subscribe? During the test period from
Dec. 16 through Dec. 29, 2017, 2.82% of people who clicked through on
the ad also clicked “subscribe” on a subscription offer from the
publisher; 1.49% of people who saw the ad and did nothing clicked
“subscribe”; 0.93% of people who clicked to close the ad also clicked
“subscribe”; and 0.05% of people who didn’t see the ad clicked
“subscribe.”
4. People who click on the ad also clicked on subscription offers more often.
Let’s
call them the curious: People who clicked through on ads — which
themselves are offers — also clicked on the subscription offer of the
publisher most often. The test showed 2.82% of those who clicked through
on the ad also clicked “subscribe” at some point during the test
period. I suppose that’s not too surprising. Perhaps they want to see
what offers are all about. And we’re not (yet) tracking the online
behavior of those who not only clicked “subscribe” but actually filled
out all the forms and entered their credit card number. Like any online
checkout, the drop-off between clicking “subscribe” and actually
subscribing is significant.
I’ll
admit I don’t have a good explanation for the next two groups. Why are
people who saw the ad but didn’t close it more likely to have clicked
“subscribe” (1.49%) than those who closed the ad (0.93%)? Could it be
that people interested in subscribing are just naturally more tolerant
of a heavy ad experience to begin with? It could be. Can we increase the
propensity to click “subscribe” of the group who closed the ad by
making their ad experience a bit less distracting? That remains
something I’d like to look into further.
As
for those who didn’t see the ad, I think we are still living with the
baggage of not showing the ad to anyone who didn’t look at an article in
the “News” section. My assumption is that people who read “News” are
just more civic-minded, more interested in their local community, and
more willing to see the value of a locally focused publication like the
San Jose Mercury News. Meanwhile, because The Merc also has a global
audience and its content is syndicated on many portal sites and social
networks, a lot of people just visit once and are gone.
Add
to all this one huge caveat: We did not track people who have ad
blockers installed. By definition, they did not see our custom ad and
are probably among the most ad-averse people out there. Yet they are
lumped in with everyone who didn’t see the ad. We can say they generate
$0 in ad revenue, but we don’t know how willing they are to subscribe.
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